{"id":18436,"date":"2010-12-20T10:32:03","date_gmt":"2010-12-20T10:32:03","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2010-12-20T10:32:03","modified_gmt":"2010-12-20T10:32:03","slug":"that-chat-tien-te-co-la-loi-giai-cho-on-dinh-vi-mo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/?p=18436","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i cho \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u0129 m\u00f4?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Trong khi ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t), th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.
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 Vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, m\u00e0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i cho ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/FONT><\/STRONG><\/FONT><\/P><\/TD><\/TR><\/TBODY><\/TABLE>
L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc v\u0129 m\u00f4 IS-LM (vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft c\u1ee7a Investment\/Saving – Liquidity preference\/Money supply, t\u1ee9c \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0\/Ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m – Nhu c\u1ea7u thanh to\u00e1n\/Ti\u1ec1n cung c\u1ea5p \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i). M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t trong c\u00e1c b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. Vi\u1ec7c m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao hay th\u1ea5p s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00eau tr\u00ean.

C\u00f3 n\u00ean th\u1eb7t ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7?<\/SPAN>

Khi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m cho s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4ng c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i r\u1eddi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1edfi khi \u0111\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n vay v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf l\u1ea1i. C\u00f2n khi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao, ngay b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n vi\u1ec7c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m cho s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng.

N\u1ebfu th\u00eam vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, th\u00ec s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c r\u1eddi b\u1ecf n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1edfi khi \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n vay l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7. V\u00e0 nguy hi\u1ec3m h\u01a1n, ngay c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f2n tr\u1ee5 l\u1ea1i th\u00ec t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 cao b\u1edfi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ee7 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp chi ph\u00ed l\u00e3i cao.

L\u1ea5y v\u00ed d\u1ee5 m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 20%. Khi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t vay \u0111ang l\u00e0 8% th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u00e0m cho m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng th\u00eam 2% l\u00ean 10% c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m cho nhi\u1ec1u doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i r\u1eddi cu\u1ed9c b\u1edfi m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch 20%-10% = 10% v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee7 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn.

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c n\u1ebfu m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 16% t\u0103ng l\u00ean 18%. M\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn cho s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00edt h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 n\u1ea3y sinh ra \u201cv\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n\u201d: l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao -> th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 -> l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao -> h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng -> doanh nghi\u1ec7p r\u1eddi cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i -> khan hi\u1ebfm h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a -> nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u -> s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 -> l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao.

Guillermo A.Calvo trong b\u00e0i \u201cLi\u1ec7u l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3  ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t? M\u1ed9t v\u00e0i \u0111i\u1ec3m nghi ng\u1edd\u201d c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra r\u1eb1ng trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd d\u1eabn t\u1edbi h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay x\u1ea5u (non-performing loans) t\u0103ng l\u00ean, l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i t\u1edbi t\u00ednh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 do v\u1eady s\u1ebd t\u1ed1i \u01b0u n\u1ebfu th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p.

Nh\u00ecn r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 nguy hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao v\u00e0 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. M\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00ec n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Khi \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u1edf chu k\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp theo. N\u00f3i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n, khi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 cao, vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 che gi\u1ea5u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1.

Vi\u1ec7c Nh\u00f3m t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam k\u00eau g\u1ecdi th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 nh\u1eb1m ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n nay t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho nguy c\u01a1 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a v\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn – d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1n. N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp, thay v\u00ec nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, th\u00ec c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd m\u1edf h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u01a1n.

L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t?<\/SPAN>

V\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf qua c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n – \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd r\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng – m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111i k\u00e8m. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i ch\u00fang ta l\u1ea1i \u0111ang tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 cao h\u01a1n, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd. Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00fang v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn, nh\u01b0ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i n\u1eb1m \u1edf c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111i k\u00e8m.

Ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c k\u00eau g\u1ecdi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n vi\u1ec7c mua l\u1ea1i tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh th\u00eam m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd.

Th\u1eddi gian qua, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf (OMO) nh\u1eb1m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o cho ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau h\u1ea1 d\u1ea7n m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 cho vay. Tuy nhi\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n do:

Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ec3 vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00f4ng qua nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ee5 t\u00e1i chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u tr\u00ean OMO th\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ea7m c\u1ed1. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111ang l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh, v\u00e0 do v\u1eady c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 (kho\u1ea3ng 10%) v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u (7-9%). V\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u00e0y l\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u201cti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n\u201d.

C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y tuy v\u1eady l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng (ho\u1eb7c \u00edt) s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00e1i chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 cho vay v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay doanh nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 l\u1ea1i d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 kinh doanh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng do vi\u1ec7c kinh doanh n\u00e0y hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean an to\u00e0n h\u01a1n v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 sinh l\u1ee3i cao h\u01a1n. V\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u201cti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n\u201d tr\u00ean OMO do vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u0103ng cao, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y khi thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n do ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 USD, t\u1ea1o s\u1ee9c \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i nh\u1ecf \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 1 l\u00ean cao h\u01a1n, t\u1ea1o ra cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng trong to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng.

Do \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng OMO c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p h\u1eefu hi\u1ec7u v\u00e0 l\u00e2u b\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n. V\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u201cti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n\u201d kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u1eefa, hay n\u00f3i kh\u00e1c \u0111i l\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn n\u1eefa, theo h\u01b0\u1edbng khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch h\u1ecd cho vay ra v\u1edbi doanh nghi\u1ec7p thay v\u00ec kinh doanh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng b\u00e0i to\u00e1n \u201c\u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn\u201d, m\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i b\u1eb1ng b\u00e0i to\u00e1n kinh t\u1ebf. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00e1i chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u l\u00ean cao th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec3 cho vay.

Do v\u1eady, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00ean th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n mua l\u1ea1i tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n vi\u1ec7c cung ti\u1ec1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean OMO. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 sau:

Khi gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung ti\u1ec1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng OMO \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p th\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 s\u1ebd l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n ra thu ti\u1ec1n \u0110\u1ed3ng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 cho vay. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do khi gi\u1ea3m cung ti\u1ec1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n qua OMO, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ea7m c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec3 vay v\u1ed1n Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u00ec v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i s\u1ebd l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ra do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m (10% so v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 13-15%) n\u00ean vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i. V\u1ecb th\u1ebf ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn khi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c \u00e9p c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nh\u1ecf tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 1.

Vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc mua l\u1ea1i tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb  tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c cung ti\u1ec1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi cung ti\u1ec1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng OMO, do \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng ngu\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea5p t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ee7 \u0111\u1eafp thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t thanh kho\u1ea3n t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay.

Vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb  tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p (tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u) s\u1ebd g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c h\u1ee3p l\u00fd, gi\u1ea3m g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i cho ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 cho vay c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng s\u1ebd gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u.

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00eau tr\u00ean c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (FED) th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi g\u00f3i n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng 2 (QE2) m\u00e0 h\u1ecd m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0  \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft t\u1edbi t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u201cg\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 kinh t\u1ebf l\u1ea7n hai tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 600 t\u1ef7 USD\u201d. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, FED \u0111\u1eb7t ra m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau s\u1ebd mua v\u00e0o 105 t\u1ef7 m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng bao g\u1ed3m 75 t\u1ef7 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 30 t\u1ef7 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p cho \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft qu\u00fd 2\/2011.

Thay l\u1eddi k\u1ebft<\/SPAN>

Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u01b0a ra hai l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn quan tr\u1ecdng. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, m\u00e0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i cho ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Theo ch\u00fang t\u00f4i n\u00ean gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. L\u00fd do ch\u00ednh cho l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao t\u1ea1o ra nguy c\u01a1 cao v\u1ec1 v\u00f2ng lu\u1ea9n qu\u1ea9n. Th\u1ee9 hai, gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, n\u1ebfu Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 s\u01a1 c\u1ea5p, qua \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u201cti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n\u201d c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i nh\u1ecf tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 1.

Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00eau tr\u00ean tuy v\u1eady c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9 gi\u1eefa ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh th\u00eam m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. C\u1ea7n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ee3p l\u00fd – t\u1ed1i \u01b0u – \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng l\u00ean nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh 7% n\u0103m, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 6-9%\/n\u0103m v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp si\u00eau 8-12% GDP\/n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u00fap l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0ng ti\u1ec1n v\u1eabn khan hi\u1ebfm, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng.

M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay kho\u1ea3ng bao nhi\u00eau l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam? R\u00f5 r\u00e0ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 qu\u00e1 r\u1ebb v\u00ec s\u1ebd khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 g\u00e2y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf, ICOR n\u0103m 2009 \u1edf m\u1ee9c g\u1ea7n 9 l\u1ea7n), nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 qu\u00e1 cao l\u00e0m cho doanh nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong kho\u1ea3ng 11-14%.<\/FONT><\/FONT><\/DIV>

                                                                   <\/FONT> Theo TS. Qu\u00e1ch m\u1ea1nh H\u00e0o
                                                                                   VnEconomy<\/FONT><\/STRONG><\/EM><\/DIV><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

 Trong khi ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t), th\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.  Vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, m\u00e0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18432,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[63],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18436"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18436\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dntieubieuna.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}