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C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Standard Chartered v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cVi\u1ec7t Nam – T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 quan\u201d. Theo \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2010, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ed1t – l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/FONT><\/STRONG>
L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i 8,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc ho\u1eb7c \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Trong th\u00e1ng 8, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0169ng duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Vi\u1ec7t Nam (SBV) v\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p. Trong \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tham chi\u1ebfu USD-VND l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 18\/8. Bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a gia t\u0103ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1edbi n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y v\u1eabn n\u1eb1m trong t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh.
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian qua, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0,1% \u0111\u1ebfn 0,3%. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho r\u1eb1ng, doanh thu b\u00e1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 30% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (chi\u1ebfm 10% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI) v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed giao th\u00f4ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i (chi\u1ebfm 8,9% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI) \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m, th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a r\u1ed5 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 40% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI, \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00edch l\u00ean trong 3 th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c. S\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap \u00edch cho vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.
Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (FDI), ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (ODA) v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i c\u0169ng \u0111ang h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. Theo B\u1ed9 K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0, trong t\u00e1m th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n v\u1ed1n FDI \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 7,25 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n ODA \u0111\u1ea1t 1,81 t\u1ef7 USD. C\u00f2n trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2010, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ec1 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 3,9 t\u1ef7 USD.<\/FONT><\/DIV><\/DIV>
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C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Standard Chartered v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cVi\u1ec7t Nam – T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 quan\u201d. Theo \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2010, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ed1t – l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/FONT><\/STRONG>
L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i 8,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc ho\u1eb7c \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Trong th\u00e1ng 8, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0169ng duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Vi\u1ec7t Nam (SBV) v\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p. Trong \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tham chi\u1ebfu USD-VND l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 18\/8. Bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a gia t\u0103ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1edbi n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y v\u1eabn n\u1eb1m trong t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh.
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian qua, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0,1% \u0111\u1ebfn 0,3%. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho r\u1eb1ng, doanh thu b\u00e1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 30% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (chi\u1ebfm 10% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI) v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed giao th\u00f4ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i (chi\u1ebfm 8,9% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI) \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m, th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a r\u1ed5 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 40% t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng CPI, \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00edch l\u00ean trong 3 th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c. S\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap \u00edch cho vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.
Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (FDI), ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (ODA) v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i c\u0169ng \u0111ang h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. Theo B\u1ed9 K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0, trong t\u00e1m th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n v\u1ed1n FDI \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 7,25 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n ODA \u0111\u1ea1t 1,81 t\u1ef7 USD. C\u00f2n trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2010, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ec1 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 3,9 t\u1ef7 USD.<\/FONT><\/DIV><\/DIV>